{"id":5677,"date":"2026-03-27T23:45:49","date_gmt":"2026-03-27T22:45:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.powertrade.fr\/?p=5677"},"modified":"2026-03-28T12:08:57","modified_gmt":"2026-03-28T11:08:57","slug":"combien-pourait-valoir-total-energies","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.powertrade.fr\/index.php\/2026\/03\/27\/combien-pourait-valoir-total-energies\/","title":{"rendered":"COMBIEN POURAIT VALOIR TOTAL \u00c9NERGIES ?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Voici un tableau indicatif de la valorisation de TOTAL \u00c9NERGIES compte tenu de l&rsquo;\u00e9volution du prix du Brent et de la dur\u00e9e du conflit en Iran:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><thead><tr><th>Brent ($) \\ Dur\u00e9e<\/th><th>30 jours<\/th><th>60 jours<\/th><th>90 jours<\/th><th>120 jours<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><strong>100 $<\/strong><\/td><td>72 \u20ac<\/td><td>75 \u20ac<\/td><td>78 \u20ac<\/td><td>80 \u20ac<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>120 $<\/strong><\/td><td>80 \u20ac<\/td><td>85 \u20ac<\/td><td>90 \u20ac<\/td><td>95 \u20ac<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>140 $<\/strong><\/td><td>88 \u20ac<\/td><td>95 \u20ac<\/td><td>102 \u20ac<\/td><td>108 \u20ac<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>160 $<\/strong><\/td><td>96 \u20ac<\/td><td>105 \u20ac<\/td><td>115 \u20ac<\/td><td>125 \u20ac<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>180 $<\/strong><\/td><td>105 \u20ac<\/td><td>118 \u20ac<\/td><td>130 \u20ac<\/td><td>145 \u20ac<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>200 $<\/strong><\/td><td>115 \u20ac<\/td><td>130 \u20ac<\/td><td>150 \u20ac<\/td><td>170 \u20ac<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>La mod\u00e9lisation de ce tableau Power-Trade est r\u00e9aliste et bas\u00e9 sur:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>La sensibilit\u00e9 officielle de Total \u00c9nergies (+ 2,3 Md$ de r\u00e9sultat pour  +10$ de Brent)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>La corr\u00e9lation forte entre le Brent et les majors p\u00e9troli\u00e8res<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>L&rsquo;effet g\u00e9opolitique (prime de risque + dur\u00e9e du conflit)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Force est de constater que nous allons rentrer dans la zone des 60 jours de conflit tr\u00e8s bient\u00f4t.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"768\" height=\"512\" src=\"https:\/\/www.powertrade.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/34PC2VF.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-5678\" style=\"width:839px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.powertrade.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/34PC2VF.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.powertrade.fr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/34PC2VF-300x200.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Pourquoi le march\u00e9 sous-estime la dur\u00e9e du conflit Iranien ?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Le march\u00e9 est il trop na\u00eff ?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Depuis plusieurs semaines, les tensions autour de l\u2019Iran et du d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz alimentent une hausse progressive du Brent. Pourtant, malgr\u00e9 ce contexte explosif, le march\u00e9 continue de pricier un sc\u00e9nario de <strong>conflit court<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>C\u2019est pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment l\u00e0 que se situe l\u2019erreur d\u2019apr\u00e8s Power-Trade<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\ud83d\udc49 Le march\u00e9 raisonne en <strong>choc temporaire<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\ud83d\udc49 Alors que les fondamentaux pointent vers une <strong>crise durable<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\ud83d\udc49 Autrement dit :<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>ce n\u2019est pas seulement le Brent qui compte\u2026 mais combien de temps il reste \u00e9lev\u00e9<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u26a0\ufe0f  Le point cl\u00e9 ignor\u00e9 par le march\u00e9 : la dur\u00e9e du conflit<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>1. Le d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz : un choke point mondial<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>~20% du p\u00e9trole mondial y transite<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Toute perturbation entra\u00eene une r\u00e9action imm\u00e9diate du Brent<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Mais surtout :<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\ud83d\udc49 <strong>Une fois la tension install\u00e9e, elle ne dispara\u00eet jamais rapidement<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>2. L\u2019histoire est formelle<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Les pr\u00e9c\u00e9dents conflits au Moyen-Orient montrent une constante :<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Guerre Iran-Irak \u2192 <strong>8 ans<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Guerre du Golfe \u2192 plusieurs mois avec effets durables<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Sanctions Iran \u2192 effets \u00e9tal\u00e9s sur plusieurs ann\u00e9es<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\ud83d\udc49 Les march\u00e9s anticipent toujours trop court.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>3. Les int\u00e9r\u00eats g\u00e9opolitiques rendent un conflit long probable<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Le conflit actuel coche toutes les cases d\u2019un <strong>conflit durable<\/strong> :<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Opposition indirecte grandes puissances<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Enjeux \u00e9nerg\u00e9tiques mondiaux<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Strat\u00e9gies d\u2019usure (et non de r\u00e9solution rapide)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\ud83d\udc49 Aucun acteur n\u2019a int\u00e9r\u00eat \u00e0 une r\u00e9solution imm\u00e9diate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\ud83d\udcc8<strong> Cons\u00e9quence directe : une sous-valorisation de TotalEnergies<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Aujourd\u2019hui, le march\u00e9 price encore :<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>un Brent mod\u00e9r\u00e9<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>une normalisation rapide<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\ud83d\udc49 <strong>Notre lecture est diff\u00e9rente :<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Brent structurellement \u00e9lev\u00e9<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>tension durable<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>rerating du secteur \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\ud83c\udfaf <strong>Notre sc\u00e9nario central (Power-Trade)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\ud83d\udc49 <strong>Le march\u00e9 va devoir repricer la dur\u00e9e du conflit<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ce qui implique :<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Brent > 110\u2013120$ maintenu<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Flux de cash record pour Total<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Revalorisation progressive du titre<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\ud83d\udc49<strong> Objectif r\u00e9aliste :<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u27a1\ufe0f <strong>80\u201385 \u20ac (d\u00e9j\u00e0 en cours)<\/strong><br>\u27a1\ufe0f puis <strong>90\u2013100 \u20ac si conflit &gt; 60 jours<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\ud83d\ude80<strong> Sc\u00e9nario bullish (non pric\u00e9 actuellement)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Si le conflit s\u2019installe :<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Brent > 140$<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>tension durable sur Ormuz<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>prime de risque \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\ud83d\udc49 Alors :<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u27a1\ufe0f <strong>TotalEnergies peut viser 110\u2013130 \u20ac<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\ud83d\udd25 <strong>Sc\u00e9nario extr\u00eame (option gratuite du march\u00e9)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Blocage r\u00e9el du d\u00e9troit d\u2019Ormuz<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Brent > 180$<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\ud83d\udc49 Dans ce cas :<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u27a1\ufe0f <strong>150 \u20ac+ sur Total devient possible<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u26a0\ufe0f<strong> Les risques (\u00e0 ne pas ignorer)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Taxes exceptionnelles sur les p\u00e9troli\u00e8res<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Intervention politique (US \/ OPEP)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>R\u00e9cession mondiale<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\ud83d\udc49 MAIS :<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>M\u00eame avec ces risques,<br><strong>les cash flows restent massifs \u00e0 court terme<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\ud83e\udde0 <strong>Conclusion Power-Trade<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\ud83d\udc49 Le march\u00e9 se trompe de variable<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>\u274c Il regarde uniquement le Brent<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>\u2705 Il devrait regarder la dur\u00e9e du conflit<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>\ud83d\udca1<strong> Notre conviction<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u27a1\ufe0f <strong>Le conflit durera bien plus longtemps que pr\u00e9vu<\/strong><br>\u27a1\ufe0f <strong>Le Brent restera \u00e9lev\u00e9 durablement<\/strong><br>\u27a1\ufe0f <strong>TotalEnergies est encore sous-valoris\u00e9e aujourd\u2019hui<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nous conservons donc notre \u00e9norme position sur les p\u00e9troli\u00e8res:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>TOTAL \u00c9NERGIES  74,15 % du portefeuille<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>PETROBRAS  2,55 % du portefeuille<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>ECOPETROL  2,29 % du portefeuille<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>PAREX 1,03 % du portefeuille<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>InPlayOil   0,82 % du portefeuille<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>TEXAS PACIFIC LAND 0,431<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Soit une exposition au secteur de l&rsquo;\u00e9nergie \u00e0 hauteur de 81,27 %<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Suite \u00e0 cette strat\u00e9gie d&rsquo;accompagner le mouvement haussier en achetant des valeurs p\u00e9troli\u00e8res, <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>notre portefeuille Power-Trade affiche une performance de + 35,79 % depuis le 01\/01\/2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nous observerons les graphiques afin de prot\u00e9ger au maximum nos gains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mais, tant que la situation reste ce qu&rsquo;elle est et que nos algorithmes et nos moyennes mobiles restent \u00e0 l&rsquo;achat, nous allons utiliser le reste de nos liquidit\u00e9s pour continuer \u00e0 acheter le Titre Total \u00c9nergies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Un titre qui peut \u00eatre acheter sur un compte titre PEA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pour connaitre nos achats et ventes <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-wp-embed is-provider-power-trade wp-block-embed-power-trade\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"oceanwp-oembed-wrap clr\"><blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"SYg2ivAz3L\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.powertrade.fr\/index.php\/passez-au-niveau-superieur-v3\/\">Passez au niveau sup\u00e9rieur<\/a><\/blockquote><iframe class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; visibility: hidden;\" title=\"\u00ab\u00a0Passez au niveau sup\u00e9rieur\u00a0\u00bb &#8212; Power-Trade\" src=\"https:\/\/www.powertrade.fr\/index.php\/passez-au-niveau-superieur-v3\/embed\/#?secret=LEAP1crMZB#?secret=SYg2ivAz3L\" data-secret=\"SYg2ivAz3L\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Disclaimer : Cet article est \u00e0 titre informatif et ne constitue pas un conseil en investissement.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Les march\u00e9s sont volatils, investissez avec prudence.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Article \u00e9crit par Patrick GUIBOUD-RIBAUD le 27 mars 2026<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Voici un tableau indicatif de la valorisation de TOTAL \u00c9NERGIES compte tenu de l&rsquo;\u00e9volution du prix du Brent et de la dur\u00e9e du conflit en Iran: Brent ($) \\ Dur\u00e9e 30 jours 60 jours 90 jours 120 jours 100 $ 72 \u20ac 75 \u20ac 78 \u20ac 80 \u20ac 120 $ 80 \u20ac 85 \u20ac 90 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5679,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"ocean_post_layout":"","ocean_both_sidebars_style":"","ocean_both_sidebars_content_width":0,"ocean_both_sidebars_sidebars_width":0,"ocean_sidebar":"","ocean_second_sidebar":"","ocean_disable_margins":"enable","ocean_add_body_class":"","ocean_shortcode_before_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_after_top_bar":"","ocean_shortcode_before_header":"","ocean_shortcode_after_header":"","ocean_has_shortcode":"","ocean_shortcode_after_title":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_widgets":"","ocean_shortcode_before_footer_bottom":"","ocean_shortcode_after_footer_bottom":"","ocean_display_top_bar":"default","ocean_display_header":"default","ocean_header_style":"","ocean_center_header_left_menu":"","ocean_custom_header_template":"","ocean_custom_logo":0,"ocean_custom_retina_logo":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_width":0,"ocean_custom_logo_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_tablet_max_height":0,"ocean_custom_logo_mobile_max_height":0,"ocean_header_custom_menu":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_family":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_subset":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_size":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_font_size_unit":"px","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_font_weight_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_tablet":"","ocean_menu_typo_transform_mobile":"","ocean_menu_typo_line_height":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_line_height_unit":"","ocean_menu_typo_spacing":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_tablet":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_mobile":0,"ocean_menu_typo_spacing_unit":"","ocean_menu_link_color":"","ocean_menu_link_color_hover":"","ocean_menu_link_color_active":"","ocean_menu_link_background":"","ocean_menu_link_hover_background":"","ocean_menu_link_active_background":"","ocean_menu_social_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_bg":"","ocean_menu_social_links_color":"","ocean_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_disable_title":"default","ocean_disable_heading":"default","ocean_post_title":"","ocean_post_subheading":"","ocean_post_title_style":"","ocean_post_title_background_color":"","ocean_post_title_background":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_image_position":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_attachment":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_repeat":"","ocean_post_title_bg_image_size":"","ocean_post_title_height":0,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay":0.5,"ocean_post_title_bg_overlay_color":"","ocean_disable_breadcrumbs":"default","ocean_breadcrumbs_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_separator_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_color":"","ocean_breadcrumbs_links_hover_color":"","ocean_display_footer_widgets":"default","ocean_display_footer_bottom":"default","ocean_custom_footer_template":"","ofc_meta_disable_footer_callout":"","ofc_meta_callout_button_url":"","ofc_meta_callout_button_txt":"","ofc_meta_callout_text":"","ofc_enable_fullscreen":"disable","ofc_fullscreen_speed":0,"ofc_fullscreen_nav":"enable","ofc_fullscreen_nav_pos":"right","ofc_fullscreen_nav_color":"","ofc_fullscreen_nav_tooltip_color":"","ofc_fullscreen_responsive":0,"osp_disable_panel":"default","osh_disable_topbar_sticky":"default","osh_disable_header_sticky":"default","osh_sticky_header_style":"default","osh_sticky_header_effect":"","osh_custom_sticky_logo":0,"osh_custom_retina_sticky_logo":0,"osh_custom_sticky_logo_height":0,"osh_background_color":"","osh_links_color":"","osh_links_hover_color":"","osh_links_active_color":"","osh_links_bg_color":"","osh_links_hover_bg_color":"","osh_links_active_bg_color":"","osh_menu_social_links_color":"","osh_menu_social_hover_links_color":"","ocean_post_oembed":"","ocean_post_self_hosted_media":"","ocean_post_video_embed":"","ocean_link_format":"","ocean_link_format_target":"self","ocean_quote_format":"","ocean_quote_format_link":"post","ocean_gallery_link_images":"on","ocean_gallery_id":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,50],"tags":[10,201,211,213,212,28,207,202],"class_list":["post-5677","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bourse","category-energie","tag-bourse","tag-brent","tag-ecopetrol","tag-inplayoil","tag-parex","tag-petrole","tag-texas-pacific-land-corporation","tag-total-energies-2","entry","has-media"],"categories_names":["Bourse","Energie"],"post_class":[["post-5677","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bourse","category-energie","tag-bourse","tag-brent","tag-ecopetrol","tag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